Despite feeling like a stationary mass, most solid ground is undergoing a process of deformation, sinking and rising in response to many environmental factors. In Antarctica, melting glacial ice means less weight on the bedrock below, allowing it to rise. How the rising earth interacts with the overlying ice sheet to affect sea level rise is not well-studied, said Terry Wilson, co-author of the study and a senior research scientist at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center at The Ohio State University.

In the new study, Wilson's colleagues at McGill University developed a model to predict how these interactions could impact global sea level, finding that if humans can lower greenhouse gas emissions and global warming is slowed, upward shifts in the solid earth could reduce Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise by about 40%, significantly bolstering the best case scenarios for global sea level rise. In this low-emissions scenario, land uplift slows the flow of ice from land to ocean, allowing for more of the ice sheet to be preserved.

Conversely, if humans are unable to lower carbon emissions in time, ice retreat will outpace uplift, pushing ocean water away from Antarctica and amplifying sea level rise. These events could significantly worsen the most dire models of projected sea level rise along populated coastlines, said Wilson.

"Our measurements show that the solid earth that forms the base of the Antarctic ice sheet is changing shape surprisingly quickly," said Wilson. "The land uplift from reduced ice on the surface is happening in decades, rather than over thousands of years."

The study was published today in Science Advances.

To arrive at these conclusions, the team developed a 3D model of the Earth's interior using geophysical field measurements from the Antarctic Network (ANET) of the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) project. The mission is focused on studying the changing polar regions by collecting GPS and seismic data from an array of autonomous systems across Antarctica.

Researchers then performed a number of simulations to capture many possible evolutions of Antarctica's ice sheet and the extent of global sea level rise Earth may experience until the year 2500, according to those parameters.

"We can project what difference it actually will make if we all contribute to a low-emission scenario now, versus what's come to be called 'business as usual' emissions," said Wilson, who is also the lead investigator of the ANET-POLENET project.